Business interruption risk analysis

Business interruption risk analysis is one of the analytical planning instruments. The term business interruption is understood to mean a possible negative deviation from the plan as a result of a breakdown caused by damage. By systematically integrating the risks and measures to prevent and reduce damage resulting from this deviation from the plan in the operational planning process, the "isolated solutions" that usually exist in industrial operations (determination of optimal repair times, internal location determination) are to be replaced.

This amounts to a bottleneck planning that is based on the potential business interruptions and their consequential damage. The bottleneck character of a resource results from the production structure, e.g. B. if all or a large part of the products have to pass through a certain production facility. The tasks of the business interruption risk analysis are:

• Analysis of the potential business interruption risks and determination of the relevant shortage costs

• Analysis of the existing possibilities to prevent damage occurring or to reduce the amount of damage as well as the determination of the corresponding security costs

• Comparison of the shortage costs and the security costs and subsequent decision as to which business interruption risks should be reduced, borne by oneself or insured externally.
In the event of a business interruption, a distinction must be made between total and partial interruptions. While the risk of a total interruption due to a total failure must be covered by appropriate property or business interruption insurance, the risk of a total interruption due to partial damage (e.g. due to the failure of a bottleneck aggregate) requires consideration in the overall operational planning by determining alternative planning options taking into account a potential business interruption for the individual bottleneck aggregates according to the production structure diagram.

Die Kosten einer Betriebsunterbrechung setzen sich wie folgt zusammen: Zu den relevanten Fixkosten zählen die fixen Produktionskosten, die während der Betriebsunterbrechungsdauer anfallen. Eine genaue Zuordnung der fixen Produktionskosten auf die Betriebsunterbrechungsdauer ist nur bei Potenzialfaktoren mit bekannter Nutzungsdauer (Overhead geschlossener Perioden) möglich.

Fixe Produktionskosten, die Utility costs darstellen (z. B. bei nicht 100%-iger zeitlicher und/oder intensitätsmäßiger Auslastung) und die den von der Betriebsunterbrechung unmittelbar betroffenen Potenzialfaktoren direkt zurechenbar sind, zählen ebenfalls zu den relevanten Fixkosten.

The (production) interruption costs are directly attributable to the business interruption and are not incurred if the production process is free of disruption. They are made up of the downtime costs, i.e. the costs that are directly or indirectly dependent on the duration of the business interruption (e.g. costs for preservation) and the transition costs, i.e. the costs that arise as a result of the change in the operating state of the unit (e.g. B. Restart and shutdown costs), together.

The lost contribution margins can be z. B. on a necessary interruption in delivery or on a good-will loss, e.g. B. Decline in sales due to the migration of potential customers.

This damage from a (potential) business interruption can be minimized within the framework of production controlling through planning based on the potential business interruption risks through:

• Consideration of alternative external delivery options in the procurement plan,

• Correction of the established (cost-minimal) repair plan in favor of bottleneck aggregates,

• Keeping spare units or corresponding spare parts or modules in reserve and

• "Redirecting" raw materials, consumables and supplies not required due to a business interruption to other products with sales that can be increased at short notice (= alternative sales planning).

Any additional security costs arising from the implementation of the above security measures must be compared with the costs of a potential business interruption for a decision.

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